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Blew it!

November 27, 2006

The Drudge Report is all over today’s report from the Tampa Tribune that early hurricane season predictions and hype were way, way off.

How far off?  Here are the numbers from the TBO.com posting:

9: The number of named storms this year

17: The number of named storms predicted May 31 by a team at Colorado State University led by Professor William Gray

45 mph: The wind speed when Tropical Storm Alberto hit the Florida Panhandle near Adams Beach on June 13, the strongest winds over Florida all season

56 percent: The average homeowner rate increase Citizens Property Insurance Corp. requested even after no hurricanes struck Florida

27 percent: The Citizens rate increase approved to start Jan. 1

0: The number of storms that formed in October, the first time since 2002 that no storms formed that month. Also, no Category 4 or 5 storms formed this year for the first time since 1997.


Drudge also provides links to an AccuWeather ad touting how one in six Americans could be affected by a hurricane this year.  Oops.

Also, Drudge links to a Washington Times story that touted similar predictions, all tied hype for around Al Gores global-warming movie, An Inconvienent Truth.

The Tribune article reports many hurricanes veered way right of the Atlantic coast this season, much like my golf slice.  But beware for next year:

This year’s uneventful season provides no assurance that next year will be as calm:

•The Atlantic remains in a 20- to 30-year cycle of high hurricane activity that started in 1995. Water temperatures are above normal.

•El Nino probably won’t be around to decapitate storms.

•There’s no promise that the Saharan dust will be as abundant.

Of course, we all know that Saharan dust can be an inhibitor for hurricane development. The dust keeps the air dry and draws moisture out of the forming storm, according to the article.  Here’s hoping for more dusty days next summer and fall.

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