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UPDATE: Election 2006: Where the money is…

November 7, 2006

Wall St. a view of elections?One time-tested way to see who’s going to win a particular sporting event is to take a look at the gambling line, set by Vegas oddsmakers. See who’s getting more bets placed on them, and that’s likely your winner, because “educated” bettors usually do research on weather conditions, injuries, coaching strategy and game plans first before putting down their wager.

Same with the 2006 Elections. Tradesports.com is an online options market, where users trade options contracts on the likelyhood of certain events to happen. Options contracts’ prices are set in stock-market fashion, based on demand and likelyhood events will happen, listed from 0 to 100 percent. Contracts that meet their states goal (ie. election win) pay out at 100 percent, while losing contracts pay nothing.

TradesportsJust taking a glance at the Tradesports market at 12:45 p.m., here are the current outcomes projected by the traders for some of today’s scenarios (Click the percentage link on each to see updates, and reminder, this blog does not promote options trading as a substitute for sound financial planning. Please consult your financial planner, and not some guy with a blog. Thanks.):

  • Democrats gain more than 9.5 seats in the U.S. House: 95%
  • Democrats gain more than 14.5 seats in the U.S. House (and take over majority): 84%
  • Democrats gain more than 24.5 seats in the U.S. House: 46%
  • Republicans keep control of the U.S. Senate: 67%
  • Republicans keep control of the U.S. House: 19%
  • Democrats win Pennsylvania Governorship (Rendell wins): 96%
  • Democrats win Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat (Casey wins): 94%

And some other world events that the markets predict:

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